China’s peak car-buying season is still waiting for its peak. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles (NEVs, meaning battery EVs and plug-in hybrids) totaled 753,000 units from Oct. 1 to 25, down 13% from the same stretch last year and 1% below the same period in September, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data released on Oct. 28.
The gloomier number is the overall market. Total passenger car retail sales came in at 1.145 million units over the same 25 days, down 26% year over year and flat against September. Gasoline cars are falling much faster than plug-ins, which is why the NEV share of retail sales held at 65.7%. That’s down slightly from 65.9% in the first 18 days of October and below September’s record 67.0%, per CnEVPost.
The October scoreboard (Oct. 1-25)
- NEV retail: 753,000, down 13% year over year, down 1% from the same period in September
- NEV retail, year to date: 8.511 million, down 13%
- NEV wholesale: 1.008 million, up 3% year over year and up 6% from September
- NEV wholesale, year to date: 12.458 million, up 9%
- NEV share: 65.7% of retail sales, 72.9% of wholesale
- All passenger cars, retail: 1.145 million, down 26%; year to date 14.479 million, down 22%
- All passenger cars, wholesale: 1.384 million, down 22%
The NEV figures match across the CPCA’s weekly report as reprinted by Mysteel, Yicai, Sina Finance and CnEVPost.
Wholesale up, retail down
The split between those two lines is the story. Factories shipped about 1 million NEVs to dealers in 25 days, up 3%. Buyers drove away with about 750,000. The CPCA was unusually direct about why: most NEV brands currently lack a hot-selling model, but manufacturers still have to keep production steady to keep their supply chains running and hit their sales targets. The result is inventory. Stock at NEV-only manufacturers reached 880,000 units at the end of September, up 30,000 from August, and the CPCA said both automakers and dealers face “considerable” inventory pressure.
What helped? National Day auto shows, local subsidies and the usual autumn promotions gave October a modest lift, the CPCA said. Daily retail sales averaged about 51,000 units in the week of Oct. 19 to 25, up from about 47,000 a week earlier. What hurt is more interesting. Persistently high global oil prices have pushed up the cost of running a car, and that’s crushing demand for gasoline models more than expected. Gas-only light vehicle production in the first four weeks of October was down 52% year over year, according to the CPCA report. In other words, expensive fuel isn’t sending buyers to EVs fast enough to offset a broader slump in first-time buying.
There are a couple of tailwinds on the cost side. The CPCA pointed to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices, which should bring battery costs down, and said expected changes to export tax rebates, plus tighter trade restrictions next year, could push automakers to pull NEV exports forward into the fourth quarter.
Where this leaves October
On Oct. 23, the CPCA forecast full-month NEV retail sales of about 1.07 million units, which would be a 16.5% year-over-year decline, with a penetration rate of 66.9%. It expects total passenger car retail of about 1.6 million, down 28.9%. NEV retail sales fell 16.7% in September, the ninth straight monthly drop. If October doesn’t flip to growth, that’s ten.
For Tesla, the September data was kinder than the market’s mood. The Model Y was China’s best-selling car in September as plug-ins hit that record 67% share, and Giga Shanghai had its best month of 2026 on surging exports. Meanwhile, BYD is answering the slowdown the old-fashioned way, with prices: its third-gen Qin Plus DM-i launched this week below what dealers had been quoting. CPCA’s full October numbers, including Tesla China’s tally, are due in early November.
Sources: China Passenger Car Association weekly data via Mysteel, Yicai, Sina Finance, CnEVPost.
— The EVX News team
Featured image: a BYD Han EV in a BYD showroom at a Shenzhen shopping mall (photo from 2023). Photo: EEYAUT Waihung / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped).
